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Metro DC/Case Shiller Disconnect (Part III of III): Prices Lag Sales

June 3, 2011  |  by Jonathan Miller

Prices Lag Sales This is the third of a three part series on the disconnect between the Case Shiller Index for DC and what is happening in the current market.

In the chart above, I compared price trends that were reported in May for both the RBI Pending Home Sale Index and the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index for “Washington, DC”. Although they are different metrics (price v. sales), it is important to view them together to understand how much more granular and current the RBI approach is to measuring the DC Metro housing market than the CSI approach.

RBI: The purpose of this chart is to show how pending sales activity leads price trends by at least a year, reflects seasonality and more shows emerging long term trends well before price trends.

CSI: The results show a 1 year lag behind RBI price trends and a removal of all seasonal patterns along with all volatility.

Other posts in this 3-part series:

I Metro DC/Case Shiller Disconnect (Part I of III): Timing [MRIS Blog]
II Metro DC/Case Shiller Disconnect (Part II of III): Seasons [MRIS Blog]

Posted in Blog, Jonathan Miller Insights

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3 Responses to “Metro DC/Case Shiller Disconnect (Part III of III): Prices Lag Sales”

  1. [...] Metro DC/Case Shiller Disconnect (Part I of III): Timing [MRIS Blog] III Metro DC/Case Shiller Disconnect (Part III of III): Prices Lag Sales [MRIS Blog] [...]

  2. [...] Metro DC/Case Shiller Disconnect (Part II of III): Seasons [MRIS Blog] III Metro DC/Case Shiller Disconnect (Part III of III): Prices Lag Sales [MRIS Blog] [...]

  3. [...] Never any sleight meant to Bob, whom I personally admire, in my CS rants but toward the way the index is used and perceived. My Case Shiller report aversion has been well documented. [...]

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