I had the chance to attend this event yesterday at the National Press Club in DC. A job very well done by our friends at NVAR, GCAAR, PGCAR, and the George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis.
DC metro will look more like USA as DC growth is slowing due to lower federal presence with jobs and spending. Professional sector is strong on jobs. Inventory measurably down from peak levels 25%+. DC is the 4th largest economy in nation and the most productive. NOVA leads the region in growth. Housing too expensive in NOVA might force moves to Texas, etc. MD health business is strong though. PW cleaned out inventory of foreclosed PG still an issue. DC, good activity in sales with coops and condos. Interesting to note re: older population … 60% stay in area after retirement. Echo boomers want to rent today but also hope to be homeowners in the next 5 years. It’s just delayed due to student debt and waiting longer to form households.
NVAR: All stats up. Rents rising. Inflation expected to increase mortgage rates. Homes appreciating. Local fundamentals are strong today. Average prices are up 7%. Continued improvement in market and a slight uptick in inventory is present. Would be sellers are underwater so listings are not coming on fast enough to meet demand. Hard to get mortgages and investor cash purchases crowd out market.
Bonnie Casper of GCAAR: Covering DC and Montgomery County. DC hit bottom in 2010 and trend is up. Competition is high in DC. Maryland, inside the beltway, inventory tight as well — demand high from all demographics so DOM way down due to increased demand. 50% of sales 20 days or less on market. Seeing deals with multiple offers. 97% original list to sale price ratio — up from 94% in 2011. Montgomery County: Median price hit over $400k first time since 2005 in mid-2012. Inventory tight like other markets. Cost of downsizing too high for most sellers in terms price per square foot so houses are not coming on the market fast enough to meet demand. DOM 60 days. 7.5% increase in sold properties. 96% vs. 93% SLP ratio from last year.